ÖSTERREICHISCHE AKADEMIE DER WISSENSCHAFTEN PHILOSOPHISCH-HISTORISCHE KLASSE ANTIKE RECHTSGESCHICHTE AKTEN DER GESELLSCHAFT FÜR GRIECHISCHE UND HELLENISTISCHE RECHTSGESCHICHTE HERAUSGEGEBEN VON EVA CANTARELLA MICHAEL GAGARIN JOSEPH MÉLÈZE MODRZEJEWSKI GERHARD THÜR in Verbindung mit Martin Dreher, Adriaan Lanni, Alberto Maffi, Julie Vélissaropoulos-Karakostas Band 25 ÖSTERREICHISCHE AKADEMIE DER WISSENSCHAFTEN PHILOSOPHISCH-HISTORISCHE KLASSE ANTIKE RECHTSGESCHICHTE AKTEN DER GESELLSCHAFT FÜR GRIECHISCHE UND HELLENISTISCHE RECHTSGESCHICHTE begründet von HANS JULIUS WOLFF HERAUSGEGEBEN VON EVA CANTARELLA MICHAEL GAGARIN JOSEPH MÉLÈZE MODRZEJEWSKI GERHARD THÜR in Verbindung mit Martin Dreher, Adriaan Lanni, Alberto Maffi, Julie Vélissaropoulos-Karakostas Band 25 T-Thür-Symposion-2015.indd 2 19.12.2016 14:41:43 SYMPOSION 2015 coordenação por / herausgegeben von ÖSTERREICHISCHE AKADEMIE DER WISSENSCHAFTEN PHILOSOPHISCH-HISTORISCHE KLASSE ANTIKE RECHTSGESCHICHTE SYMPOSION 2015 Conferências s
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Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus As one analyst put it, BT actually explains “what are regarded as sound methodological procedures” and reveals “the infirmities of what are acknowledged as unsound procedures” in almost any empirical field. 1 In other words, Bayes's Theorem underlies all other methodologies and thus explains why certain methods are regarded as sound, and others not—even when advocates or detractors of various methods are unaware of BT's capability in this regard. This entails a testable prediction, that all valid empirical methods reduce to BT: any method you propose will either be logically invalid or it will be described by BT. One might challenge how universally that's true, but here I will demonstrate that it at least holds for historical methods. I'll start with the most widely applicable examples, increasing in degrees of generalization, then test a few common methods of narro